Well it's always nice to see Condi strutting her stuff in India although her visit will achieve nothing.
Currently the Pakistani government is even weaker than the Indian government and Pakistans inability to transform its ISI will prove to be a huge problem in months to come as this agency has been able to operate under its own rules for too long.
The US will want to limit India's response but I don't think that the Indians will do anything other than just listen to what Condi has to say. The whole issue has become far to political for the Indians for them to care about what the US is saying about the International scene. The Indians will not believe for one minute that the Mumbai bombings were a one off atrocity and will most likely be preparing for further attacks against them. Pakistan will be unable to stem the attacks coming from within their country so we will be left in a unchanged situation from now, something which is unacceptable for all concerned.
The Indians will be sympathetic to the US's war in Afghanistan and the need for Pakistani troops to support the US army but the Indians will demand that the terror attacks stop and that is something that neither the US or Pakistan can deliver on. The Indians cannot do nothing and the government would likely would likely fail if it did so, so the chances are the Indians will move a couple of hundred thousand troops along its border with Pakistan. Pakistan would have to reply by removing a few hundred thousand of their troops from the border with Afghanistan thus weakening the US military's position there. The US will not be happy LOL.
The Taliban will be strengthened as a result of the Pakistani troops pulling out and the US military will likely take some losses as a result of this.
The darker side of me thinks that possibly the US could do a deal with India to invade Pakistan but the outcome of this would be highly unpredictable, we only have to take a look at the mess in Iraq to know so.
Either way tough times ahead for India and Pakistan.
Currently the Pakistani government is even weaker than the Indian government and Pakistans inability to transform its ISI will prove to be a huge problem in months to come as this agency has been able to operate under its own rules for too long.
The US will want to limit India's response but I don't think that the Indians will do anything other than just listen to what Condi has to say. The whole issue has become far to political for the Indians for them to care about what the US is saying about the International scene. The Indians will not believe for one minute that the Mumbai bombings were a one off atrocity and will most likely be preparing for further attacks against them. Pakistan will be unable to stem the attacks coming from within their country so we will be left in a unchanged situation from now, something which is unacceptable for all concerned.
The Indians will be sympathetic to the US's war in Afghanistan and the need for Pakistani troops to support the US army but the Indians will demand that the terror attacks stop and that is something that neither the US or Pakistan can deliver on. The Indians cannot do nothing and the government would likely would likely fail if it did so, so the chances are the Indians will move a couple of hundred thousand troops along its border with Pakistan. Pakistan would have to reply by removing a few hundred thousand of their troops from the border with Afghanistan thus weakening the US military's position there. The US will not be happy LOL.
The Taliban will be strengthened as a result of the Pakistani troops pulling out and the US military will likely take some losses as a result of this.
The darker side of me thinks that possibly the US could do a deal with India to invade Pakistan but the outcome of this would be highly unpredictable, we only have to take a look at the mess in Iraq to know so.
Either way tough times ahead for India and Pakistan.
