We seem to be forgetting that the majority of owners of modded boxes have bought from traders or purchased a third party manufactured stb and have little or no knowledge of how they work. There is a good chance that these people pay nothing to vm or minimum subs at the very least. A total of 20-50000 modded boxes is way off the mark, I would expect that to be the figure per area and not nationally.
Its just been too easy to get hold of third party boxes that has pushed vm to move to Nagra 3. Who could blame them and their revenues should increase significantly in some areas. So don't expect most of those experiencing blank screens coming here or to other forums with a spoon in their hand. It will be those who come here only when they need the occasional card fix or update and not aware of the move to a much more secure encryption.
Looking at the other options available it probably comes down to cs on satelitte, but, here again it has been exploited by public cs servers. So long as providers concentrate on closing down public cs sites, and not target the cs process, it might be a viable alternative. But, I am sure that Mr Murdock will be putting all his efforts into bringing cs to an end, so don't expect it to last too long on Sky.
So my options are staying with vm for their broadband and paying extra tv subs if I cannot get what I want off the internet or moving to a motorised satelitte system with private cs.
James