Sensible Topic Electricity bills to double.

[MH]

Well it would appear that our electricity bills are to potentially double in the next 10 years, well certainly a portion of out bill.
This is with regards to the new Nuclear Power Station that is to be built in Somerset.
Our illustrious Government has signed a deal with EDF that currently has a guaranteed rate that is double what the rate is at the moment, that is index linked. The station is due to commence supply in around 10-12 years.

I do believe we should be looking at investing in energy conservation as well as more Nuclear Power Stations.

What the Government are trying to say is that as we as a tax payer are not paying for this new build, we are effectively saving money.


(TT)

 

[D 8 RCS]

Yeah, saw this on the News with that twat Cameron saying "This shows the World we are open for business" I think he meant "This shows the World that Britain is for Sale !"
They have agreed to pay EDF a "strike price" of £92.50 for every megawatt hour of energy, almost twice the current wholesale cost of electricity which indeed does suggest the prices will double within 10 years.
There was even an economist on trying to suggest that it would save the consumer money.......................IF.....the "spot price" (market value price) were to increase above £92.50 ...................Great News that, so if energy prices more than double within the next 10 years then we the consumer will "save" money.
What he forgot to say is that if the price were to only increase by 50% within the next 10 years we have to pay EDF a lot more.........................except that will not happen now because the Energy Industry have just been given the Go Ahead to double their prices within the next 10 years because of this "Deal".
Shafted Again !!!
And who profits from this ? Sir Robert McAlpine with the construction contract, perhaps ? But definitely the French and the Chinese.

 

[oneman]

Indeed the question is what is going to be going rate for power in 10 years time ?

The deal CPI linked which is well below the increases we have had (and likely to have) for energy. There is no indication that energy price increase will ever be below CPI any time soon.

As for French and Chinese involvement. UK companies have had this on the table for the best part of 10 years now from labour government days. None of them wanted a piece of the action even with guaranteed future price.

Also virtually all 'green' power from wind farms (which there is plenty of opposition to), wave generation (still no large scale deployment yet) and Solar (large domestic subsidies) currently receive large amount of tax breaks/subsidies, the cost of which is passed on to your electricity supplier and thus you already. Nuclear is not much different in that sense except the potential subsidy will be decided on future prices.

 

[edogg]

fuel bill's have already doubled in price in the last 2 years never mind where they will be in 10 years and the conservative's have already sold most of this country to the world, power, water and, transport are just some of the industries we no longer own as a country

 

[D 8 RCS]

Indeed the question is what is going to be going rate for power in 10 years time ?

The deal CPI linked which is well below the increases we have had (and likely to have) for energy. There is no indication that energy price increase will ever be below CPI any time soon.

As for French and Chinese involvement. UK companies have had this on the table for the best part of 10 years now from labour government days. None of them wanted a piece of the action even with guaranteed future price.

How can the deal be CPI linked ? CPI is running at 2.7% at the moment and has averaged at 2.57% over the last 10 years, having been at 1.4% in 2003 and peaking at 4.5% in 2011.
To achieve the prices agreed the CPI would have to be over 7% every year for the next 10 years.
A notable point is that prices dipped to their lowest point during 2002 and 2003, around the time all the foreign companies buying the rights to supply the UK power........................................bait them up and reel them in !!!
As for UK power companies having the option for over 10 years, you mean from the time they were at their weakest as in 2002/3, as for it being Labour Party times, the political party doesn't matter because as I have said before they are all only in politics for themselves. But at that point it was Tony Blair, who was only Maggie Thatcher in disguise.

 

[Him Her]

I'd observe there are upsides but I think I'll stay under the stairs

 

[oneman]

Just to clarify how this deal works and you can put your political hat away.

Government has agreed a price of £92.50 per MW/h. This figure is CPI link, which for simplicity sake we say stays at 3%.
All the reports are saying that this is roughly double what the cost is today, so take today's cost to £45 and increases by 10% per year.

So by 2023, in ten years time, the price agreed (increasing at 3% per year) vs current cost (increasing at 10%). Sorry about formatting but don't know how to insert a table or use tab spaces.

2013 92.50 45.00
2014 95.28 49.50
2015 98.13 54.45
2016 101.08 59.90
2017 104.11 65.88
2018 107.23 72.47
2019 110.45 79.72
2020 113.76 87.69
2021 117.18 96.46
2022 120.69 106.11
2023 124.31 116.72

So you can see the actual difference using hypothetical figures now leaves us 6% worse off.

2024 128.04 128.39

In 2024 the figures are about even. After which we are better off.

2025 131.88 141.23
2026 135.84 155.35
2027 139.91 170.89
2028 144.11 187.98
2029 148.44 206.77
2030 152.89 227.45
2031 157.48 250.20
2032 162.20 275.22
2033 167.07 302.74

Within ten years we are paying almost 1/2 what we would have been. And I believe this deal is for 35 years so in real terms you can imagine the real saving. It's not quite as simple because it relies on EDF/Chinese consortium paying the government a relative payment vs market value but you get the general idea. I believe it's also been agreed that if EDF build Sizewell C then the that price drops to £89.50

Of course this is totally reliant on CPI and wholesale energy costs as it if we end up better off or not and these are wholesale prices and its up to the supplier to set the domestic price.

 

[Him Her]

Just to clarify how this deal works and you can put your political hat away.

Government has agreed a price of £92.50 per MW/h. This figure is CPI link, which for simplicity sake we say stays at 3%.
All the reports are saying that this is roughly double what the cost is today, so take today's cost to £45 and increases by 10% per year.

So by 2023, in ten years time, the price agreed (increasing at 3% per year) vs current cost (increasing at 10%). Sorry about formatting but don't know how to insert a table or use tab spaces.

2013 92.50 45.00
2014 95.28 49.50
2015 98.13 54.45
2016 101.08 59.90
2017 104.11 65.88
2018 107.23 72.47
2019 110.45 79.72
2020 113.76 87.69
2021 117.18 96.46
2022 120.69 106.11
2023 124.31 116.72

So you can see the actual difference using hypothetical figures now leaves us 6% worse off.

2024 128.04 128.39

In 2024 the figures are about even. After which we are better off.

2025 131.88 141.23
2026 135.84 155.35
2027 139.91 170.89
2028 144.11 187.98
2029 148.44 206.77
2030 152.89 227.45
2031 157.48 250.20
2032 162.20 275.22
2033 167.07 302.74

Within ten years we are paying almost 1/2 what we would have been. And I believe this deal is for 35 years so in real terms you can imagine the real saving. It's not quite as simple because it relies on EDF/Chinese consortium paying the government a relative payment vs market value but you get the general idea. I believe it's also been agreed that if EDF build Sizewell C then the that price drops to £89.50

Of course this is totally reliant on CPI and wholesale energy costs as it if we end up better off or not and these are wholesale prices and its up to the supplier to set the domestic price.

Quite. We will also be a little less dependant on Global prices. EDF are not exactly numpties when it comes to bringing nuclear on-line and China is just investing. All in all I think it's a good deal.

 

[eon]

It seems to be a good deal but time will tell, and tbh unless we want 4 day working weeks and power cuts we need to start building something. After 2014 we will have another 2 million residents to supply power to. The last lot did **** all apart from land us with a massive green tax for one of the worst renewable power schemes around. Wind farms, they only work when its windy and if its too windy they cant have them on at all.

 

[Him Her]

It seems to be a good deal but time will tell, and tbh unless we want 4 day working weeks and power cuts we need to start building something. After 2014 we will have another 2 million residents to supply power to. The last lot did **** all apart from land us with a massive green tax for one of the worst renewable power schemes around. Wind farms, they only work when its windy and if its too windy they cant have them on at all.

You forgot to mention if the wind is low they need a start-up 'push' - electrically

 

[oneman]

It seems to be a good deal but time will tell, and tbh unless we want 4 day working weeks and power cuts we need to start building something. After 2014 we will have another 2 million residents to supply power to. The last lot did **** all apart from land us with a massive green tax for one of the worst renewable power schemes around. Wind farms, they only work when its windy and if its too windy they cant have them on at all.

UK has some of the worlds most prime wind farm locations and they are finally being developed. Not totally on board with the way they are being funded but I think in long term it can only be a good thing for the country, much in the way north sea oil saved teh country in the 70's and 80's.

 

[eon]

UK has some of the worlds most prime wind farm locations and they are finally being developed. Not totally on board with the way they are being funded but I think in long term it can only be a good thing for the country, much in the way north sea oil saved teh country in the 70's and 80's.

We might have some of the best locations, but the cost and time scale is unrealistic, i was watching the news earlier and one professor said they account for less that 1% of of our national needs, im not sure on the numbers.

Another thing is that the UK only utilized 25% of the total rated output from these wind farms, so 75% of the time they are sat idle. Good article here about Germany's failed policy Germany's wind power chaos should be a warning to the UK - Telegraph

 

[oneman]

We might have some of the best locations, but the cost and time scale is unrealistic, i was watching the news earlier and one professor said they account for less that 1% of of our national needs, im not sure on the numbers.

Another thing is that the UK only utilized 25% of the total rated output from these wind farms, so 75% of the time they are sat idle. Good article here about Germany's failed policy Germany's wind power chaos should be a warning to the UK - Telegraph

projected supply indicates by 2020 that wind could supply 15% of projected UK energy needs. Of course the problem with wind is its inconsistency which is why it needs to part of a diverse power generation strategy (including nuclear) couple with smart grid which can better control demand.

Say you have consumption that can be time independent, e.g. charging up electric car or running a washing machine. Weather prediction says that turbines will be spinning at 2pm so power company sends a signal to your device saying switch on at 2pm and you get 10% reduction on electricity costs while power is coming from renewable source.

There are also options such as Dinorwig power stations which are effectively large batteries which can be charged up overnight when there is surplus power and then generate power during the day when there is extra demand.

Of course its not the complete answer but there ways of better utilising the power.

 

[eon]

projected supply indicates by 2020 that wind could supply 15% of projected UK energy needs. Of course the problem with wind is its inconsistency which is why it needs to part of a diverse power generation strategy (including nuclear) couple with smart grid which can better control demand.

Say you have consumption that can be time independent, e.g. charging up electric car or running a washing machine. Weather prediction says that turbines will be spinning at 2pm so power company sends a signal to your device saying switch on at 2pm and you get 10% reduction on electricity costs while power is coming from renewable source.

There are also options such as Dinorwig power stations which are effectively large batteries which can be charged up overnight when there is surplus power and then generate power during the day when there is extra demand.

Of course its not the complete answer but there ways of better utilising the power.

And how much extra is that going to cost to implement or even a timescale? We want more power and lower bills not more unprofitable and unsustainable windfarms. If we can only utilize 25% of the rated output of windfarms means we would have to build 3 more turbines for everyone we plan? Very inefficient.

 

[oneman]

And how much extra is that going to cost to implement or even a timescale? We want more power and lower bills not more unprofitable and unsustainable windfarms. If we can only utilize 25% of the rated output of windfarms means we would have to build 3 more turbines for everyone we plan? Very inefficient.

Actually even though we have had an increasing population, UK power consumption has been dropping since 2004. I guess partially due to a switch from manufacturing to service led industry. And don't forget that appliances, lighting, etc will be reducing in future. e.g. switching of street light to LED or being switched off all together.

As for smart grid, first thing is get smart meters in place that allow two way communication, this is due to happen by end of 2020. Protocols are already standardised for messaging and you also have the option of plug-in unit that controls power to a device so they may not need updating of appliances on mass (e.g. control for immersion heater).

As for wind farms, my quotes figure is based on GENERATED capacity from currently planned farms, not maximum capacity, check wiki for actual data. And time scale for windfarms, well its happening now. 1.2GW was bought online in 2012 alone. Planning permission has been given for another 4.x GW which will be in place by end of 2016, say 2017 with slippage that will take us to around 11% or 12% of UK power being generated from wind. There is potential for another 5GW but that depends on subsidies to make it viable, which would take us to around 15%. Beyond that you are looking at deep water wind farms which would need more cost effective installation technology.

 

[starkie]

nuclear power stations is the only way to get the electric we need at reasonable cost

but all the save the planet people wont let us build anything so you will have to get used to the price of things going up and up

 

[edogg]

I should have pointed out in my OP That Mr Harold Wilson when he was prime minister promised us free gas when the North Sea gas and Oil fields came on Line. That worked out really well didn't it

 

[danforth]

I saw a picture of a wind turbine on the news earlier which had collapsed due to high winds !:LOL:

I don't know whether it was archive footage, or current, but I did enjoy the irony.

 

[D 8 RCS]

Just to clarify how this deal works and you can put your political hat away.

Government has agreed a price of £92.50 per MW/h. This figure is CPI link, which for simplicity sake we say stays at 3%.
All the reports are saying that this is roughly double what the cost is today, so take today's cost to £45 and increases by 10% per year.

So by 2023, in ten years time, the price agreed (increasing at 3% per year) vs current cost (increasing at 10%). Sorry about formatting but don't know how to insert a table or use tab spaces.

2013 92.50 45.00
2014 95.28 49.50
2015 98.13 54.45
2016 101.08 59.90
2017 104.11 65.88
2018 107.23 72.47
2019 110.45 79.72
2020 113.76 87.69
2021 117.18 96.46
2022 120.69 106.11
2023 124.31 116.72

So you can see the actual difference using hypothetical figures now leaves us 6% worse off.

2024 128.04 128.39

In 2024 the figures are about even. After which we are better off.

2025 131.88 141.23
2026 135.84 155.35
2027 139.91 170.89
2028 144.11 187.98
2029 148.44 206.77
2030 152.89 227.45
2031 157.48 250.20
2032 162.20 275.22
2033 167.07 302.74

Within ten years we are paying almost 1/2 what we would have been. And I believe this deal is for 35 years so in real terms you can imagine the real saving. It's not quite as simple because it relies on EDF/Chinese consortium paying the government a relative payment vs market value but you get the general idea. I believe it's also been agreed that if EDF build Sizewell C then the that price drops to £89.50

Of course this is totally reliant on CPI and wholesale energy costs as it if we end up better off or not and these are wholesale prices and its up to the supplier to set the domestic price.

@oneman I can appreciate how you see those stats, but the point I was making is that without the deal being made the likelyhood would have been that the increases would not have been anywhere near 10% year on year and thus doubling the bills within 10 years, plus as you say that is the wholesale price and the extra charges are not even factored into the price the consumer will pay.
As for the PR stunt of calling in the Energy companies to explain why the increases and the threats or windfall taxes and more "Green" taxes what a sham !!
What good does any of that do the consumer ? None, all that does is give the Energy companies more reasons to increase prices..............13% of a consumers bill are already taken up in these taxes, even if these tax rates stay the same the income to the treasury increases and the consumer still pays more because 13% of £200 is still more than 13% of £100.
It is statistics and bullshit to hide the real facts.

 

[D 8 RCS]

I should have pointed out in my OP That Mr Harold Wilson when he was prime minister promised us free gas when the North Sea gas and Oil fields came on Line. That worked out really well didn't it

But we have been receiving Free Gas from that day onwards............................in the form of political speeches and promises.