Day Zero
So much has happened today it’s difficult to know where exactly to start.
Firstly, the start of the trickle of the so called “Nuclear” material into the atmosphere. Like from Chernobyl, the material is there but it’s taking time to blow over in our general direction. The snippet, as provided by the reputable “barcabhoy” on the RTC blog was that, in spite of all the speculation that has gone on these past couple of days, the information he has is simply regarding the payment to Graeme Souness. He claims that Souness was actually paid a sum far in excess of the £30,000 mentioned in Mark Daly’s documentary. While there is no more detail on that, we do know that, in his time at Newcastle/Blackburn, Souness bought Lorenzo Amoruso, Jean Alain Boumsong, Barry Ferguson and Tugay, with players going the other way. The £30k is from the Tugay deal only (the first to have gone through). This seems to suggest that the payments to Souness were not via EBTs and through some other method of payment we are hitherto unaware of. But if £30k is Souness’ payment for a fee of £1.3m, his other dealings totalled over £15.5m. If the alleged payments were directly proportional to the fee paid, we are talking about a sum well in excess of £350k. Even if not, Souness clearly has some questions to answer regarding exactly what, if anything, he received from Rangers. Yes, it may kill his punditry career, but no more so than denial and the facts coming out anyway.
Secondly came the CVA proposal. I could give this a lot of coverage, but it is probably only deserving of a mention as derisory as the offer itself. The CVA is built on future revenues (to 2020) and on transfer fees not yet paid (£3.5m) yet offers mere pennies in the pound, loads the club from (re)birth with £8.5m debt, values future transfer fees of players contracted at £5m (for the whole team, mind you) which is so far below market value you wonder what exactly they are expecting to sell players for, appears to value assets such as Ibrox and Murray Park (which were valued at the start of admin at over £100m) at £5.5m (should a CVA fail, that would be the price the Green Knights have to pay for them) and rates HMRC as a creditor with less owed than Ticketus (Big Tax Case is just a TBA).
All I can say is this. It seems to me that Duff & Phelps made the mistake of grossly overvaluing RFC (IA)’s assets at the start of admin and, after this scared off buyers, who baulked at the prospect of getting assets that were overvalued, the reaction has been to grossly undervalue them. The entire Rangers first team, Ibrox and Murray Park worth £10.5m between them? That’s a massive undervaluation which would actually make, if liquidated, Ibrox and Murray Park probably worth more knocked down and built on than as a footballing concern which, considering his history at Sheffield United, is potentially Charles Green’s Wet Dream. To say a CVA will fail would also be an undervaluation of the circumstances. It will be thrashed, routed, embarrassed and humiliated. It is the financial equivalent of the Romans at Cannae.
Speaking of ancient battles, a Phyrric victory was won at the court of session today as Rangers got them to agree that the 12 month transfer ban that was imposed was not lawful.
So far, so good. So why so Phyrric? They wanted it overturned and thrown out altogether. Instead, it was referred back to the SFA to adjudicate a punishment that would actually be lawful. At the same time, FIFA announced that they were “monitoring the situation closely”, which appears to be doublespeak for “Muck this up, SFA, and we’ll be on you”.
What then, can the SFA do? They can a) accept the ruling and leave punishment as fines only, b) suspend Rangers from the Scottish Cup for a period of time or c) Terminate their membership.
Do a) and FIFA will threaten to kick Scotland out of International competition and UEFA will ban Scottish Clubs from Europe, causing outrage.
Do b) and FIFA will threaten to kick Scotland out of International competition and UEFA will ban Scottish clubs from Europe, causing outrage.
Do c) and, while UEFA and FIFA will be happy, Rangers fans will probably burn Hampden to the ground…causing outrage.
The SFA, in their judgement on the previous ruling, stated they felt that just fines was too lenient, a Scottish Cup ban was inappropriate (given the circumstances) and termination of membership was too severe. The question is, with FIFA seemingly furious at Rangers for going to court, what is the middle path? The fines are already as large as they possibly could be so the options are further limited. There is little chance that everyone can be placated. The options are limited to two - Termination of membership or an extended ban from the Scottish Cup with termination as a suspended sentence for a length of time alongside it.
There isn’t even precedent for this. I’ve seen FC Sion mentioned as a possible precursor for what punishment may be applied. FC Sion’s misdeeds aren’t even in the same universe as Rangers’. FC Sion fielded ineligible players and were deducted 36 points (and, in spite of that, weren’t relegated) for fielding ineligible players and daring to take UEFA to court. We can look to Swiss football also for our other example - Neuchatel Xamax. Neuchatel had “financial irregularities” (forging of financial documents, see not paying tax for RFC) which resulted in bankruptcy (see Admin for RFC) leading to the revocation of their licence to play football. If you add those cases together, you get to the stage where the misdeeds are getting close to equal of those Rangers have been accused of. To mix terms, it is both virgin territory and scorched earth - the SFA haven’t been in this position before, and the position is poisoned no matter what they do.
So what do they do? In my opinion, expulsion is the only option that will satisfy FIFA. Should Rangers fans then choose to vent hatred upon the Scotland team, it’s employees and premises, well, let them. All that proves is the decision was the correct one. At the end of the day, while we all like to think football is still a game by the fans for the fans, it isn’t. If FIFA require a pound of flesh to be placated (and it is hardly likely they would be satisfied with just Rangers being punished, they will want SFA reform and resignations) then, for the good of the game in Scotland, they have to be placated. If they are not, the entire independence of football in Scotland is at risk.
On a day where Celtic’s brand was announced to be playing Real Madrid in the USA this summer (showing that, commercially, they are in the same circles), Rangers brand has written its own death warrant. Today is Day Zero of the end of Rangers football club, with the clock ticking closer towards the SFA making a judgement which will surely result in their immediate and permanent demise.
The Football Life • Day Zero
