Whilst it's true we've not yet left; to remain in the Common Market (European Economic Area), the likelihood is we'll have to pay a contribution. What that contribution is has yet to be negotiated.
Norway's membership of the EEA European Free Trade Agreement (EEA EFTA) is based on their GDP, as a proportion of the GDP of the EU. Norway currently pays €391 million a year for EFTA membership. Another €6m covers the costs of agreements such as Schengen. They also pay another €447m towards
voluntary programmes.
Quick calculation as to what this
might mean for the UK's contributions...
- UK's GDP as a percentage of the EU's current GDP
- Approximation of the EU's GDP once the UK leaves.
- $16.63t - $2.44t = $14.19t
- UK's GDP as a percentage of the EU's revised GDP.
- Cost of remaining in just the EU EFTA
- $2.44t*0.147
- $2.44t*0.172
- = $358.68m - $419.68m per year (€338.37 - €395.98m, £287.98m - £337.01m)
The UK currently pays £13 billion to the EU each year; this is after the rebate, but before any EU payment schemes (such as the Common Agricultural Policy).
Unfortunately I've got to go out, but it would be interesting how long it would take to pay off this £121bn loan based on a 0% interest and just subtracting the £13bn saved by not being an EU member and adding the £337m for EFTA membership...
Figures for reference:
Iceland's GDP is $13.66 billion
Norway's GDP is $499.67 billion
UK's GDP is $2.44 trillion
EU as a whole is $16.63 trillion
Sources:
Bad Request
Countries Compared by Economy > GDP. International Statistics at NationMaster.com
The UK's EU membership fee - Full Fact