cheltenham trends

ganjaman

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CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP TRENDS 2016


The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Friday, 18th March and is highlight of the Festival for many. The fourth day is generally sold out in anticipation of a great spectacle and the race rarely fails to deliver. The key trends for the race seem to point to a horse aged 6 to 9 that finished 1st or 2nd in the King George, Lexus or Denman Chase this season.


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 9


- Irish or French bred


- Had 3 to 11 career chase starts (2 to 5 this season)


- Finished in first 2 in all chase starts over 2M 6F+ this season


- Second or third season chaser (or previous winner of Gold Cup)


- Won last time out and posted RPR of 162+


- Posted an RPR of 167+ in last 2 chase starts


- Won over 3M+


- Previously won a grade 1 chase (ideally this season)


- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase at 2015 Festival (ideally the 2015 RSA)


- Finished in first 2 in Hennessy Gold Cup, Betfair and/or Denman Chase


- Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George this season


- From first 3 in the betting (favourite does especially well)


- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson.

WORLD HURDLE TRENDS 2016


The World Hurdle (formerly the Stayers’ Hurdle) is the highlight of the third day of the Cheltenham Festival. Won by some absolutely fantastic horses since 2000, including Baracouda, Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s. Thistlecrack has set himself apart as the stayer to beat this season, but last year’s winner, Cole Harden, and Alpha Des Obeaux & Vroum Vroum Mag, from Ireland, could provide stern competition.


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 8 (or a previous winner of the World Hurdle)


- French breds do well


- Previously run at least 10 times over hurdles (or unbeaten over hurdles)


- 2nd or 3rd season hurdler (or a previous winner)


- Run 2 to 4 times this season, finishing in first 2 on all runs


- Achieved RPR of 161+ on last start


- Won over 3M+ (or a graded winner over 2M 4F+ & having first try at 3M+)


- Previous Cheltenham winner (ideally over this course and distance)


- Won a 3M grade 1 or 2 hurdle this season at a left-handed track


- Previously finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle (ideally won)


- Finished in the first 2 in last year’s race


- Finished in first 2 in Cleeve, Long Distance and/or Long Walk Hurdle


- Finished in first 4 in Liverpool or Mersey Novice Hurdle at 2015 Aintree Festival


- Trained in Great Britain


- From first 4 in the betting.

CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2016 -


The highlight of the first day of Cheltenham’s four day Festival, which kicks off on the 15th March, is the Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, the big one for 2 mile hurdlers. Since 1998, twelve winners have come from Ireland, with Faugheen, Jezki & Hurricane Fly taking the last 3 renewals.

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Gelding aged 6 to 9
- Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
- Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
- Run 2 to 4 times this season
- 2nd or 3rd season hurdler or finished in first 3 in 2015 Champion Hurdle
- Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
- Finished in first 3 in 2015 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2015 Festival
- Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle
- Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Ryanair Hurdle
- British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth and/or Christmas Hurdle
- Ran in Kingwell, Contenders, Red Mills Trial or Irish Champion Hurdle last time
- Trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson.

- - - Updated - - -

ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY TRENDS 2016


The second race on day 1 is the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, run over 2M for novice chasers. It has been won by some top class chasers since 2000 including 4 subsequent Champion Chase winners – Moscow Flyer, Azertyioup, Voy Por Ustedes & Sprinter Sacre and last year’s winner, Un De Sceaux could turn out to be another subsequent champion chaser. Willie Mullins has been a head off winning the last 2 renewals and has short priced favourite, Douvan, in this year’s race, while the record of Paul Nicholls has been surprisingly poor in the Arkle in recent years.


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred aged 6 or 7, or Irish bred aged 7
- Run in 2 to 4 chases this season
- Never finished out of the first 2 over fences
- Posted an RPR of 153+ on last 2 starts
- Had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Run in 4 to 13 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles
- Course winner or placed in a hurdle at the Festival (or having first start here)
- Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at 2015 Cheltenham Festival (ideally in a novice h’dl)
- Finished in first 2 in November, Wayward Lad and/or Henry VIII Novice Chase
- Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Philip Hobbs
- Respect Irish runners that finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
- From the first 5 in the betting (no bigger than 9/1).

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS 2016


The highlight of the second day of the Cheltenham Festival is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Last year’s winner Dodging Bullets hasn’t run since but the previous 2 winners of this, Sprinter Sacre & Sire De Grugy, have both won graded chases this season. However the previous season’s Arkle has proven the most reliable guide to finding the winner, so Un De Sceaux looks the one to beat.


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 8 or 9


- Won a graded chase on last completed outing


- Posted an RPR of 165+ last time out


- Run 2 to 3 times this season


- Run 7 to 13 times over fences (or a previous Champion Chase winner)


- Won over 50% of completed career chase starts


- 2nd or 3rd season chaser (or previous Champion Chase winner)


- Won over at least 2M 1F


- Previously won a grade 1 chase


- Course winner (or having first course run)


- Won the Arkle or ran in Champion Chase at 2015 Festival


- Finished in the first 4 in 2015 Tingle Creek, Shloer and/or Maghull Novice Chase


- Won 2015 Kingmaker Novice Chase and/or Desert Orchid


- Ran in Game Spirit, Clarence House or Tied Cottage Chase last time


- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland.

- - - Updated - - -

RSA CHASE TRENDS 2016


The RSA Chase takes place on day 2 of the Festival and is run over 3 miles and 110 yards. This race attracts novice chasers bred with a pedigree with more of an emphasis on stamina than speed. Horses that run well in this race often go on to glory in the Hennessy Gold Cup, King George or Cheltenham Gold Cup the following season. In recent years, Irish trained runners have held the edge, winning 5 of last 7.


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7


- Irish bred (or French bred 5yo)


- Progeny of Oscar & Presenting do well


- Finished in first 2 last time


- Posted an RPR of 150+ last time out


- Run in 3 to 5 chases (or unbeaten in 2 chase runs)


- Finished in the first 3 in all completed chase starts


- Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase


- Won a chase at a left-handed track this season


- Won over at least 2M 5F


- Ran no more than 9 times over hurdles & never run on the flat


- Officially rated 136+ over hurdles


- Irish trained that finished in first 2 in Flogas and/or Nevilles Hotel Novice Chase


- British-trained & finished in first 3 in Feltham, Reynoldstown and/or Berkshire Novice Chase


- Ran in 2015 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (ideally finishing in first 4)


- Trained in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins) or by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson.
 
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